Average vs Scheduled Speeds

Some news from the thesis front:

I think I’ve finally perfected my method for linking real-time data with scheduled stops. This is a comparison of the average (weekly) scheduled speeds to the observed average speed for each stop->stop segment. Results that look roughly as expected are what we all hope for.

TTC - differences in observed and scheduled speeds

Note that each classification is broken into eight equal sized quantiles

There is a lot of information in that little gif! More than I can explain here. More to come…

Higher resolution here by the way. It’s interesting to look at even if you don’t know Toronto. Also, the line widths are determined by the number of trips scheduled for each segment.

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Posted in: Data | Maps | Method
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Philosophy, grad school, and a challenge to ‘BRT’

Apologies for the slow posting here lately…grad school has been swallowing an outrageous amount of my time the last couple of weeks. I do have some interesting things in the works though, so I’ll just whet your appetites until they’re ready to fruit before leaving you with some methodological musings.

But I may also blame the slow posting on a rapidly developing understanding of my approach to such problems as the ones I’m trying to address through this blog. My rational side says I need to be positive and empirical, adding nuance and evidence to the general discussion of transit in Cincinnati, but the less rational sides of me want prankishness and a negative reproach to the nonsense I see going on all around me, particularly about ‘the streetcar’. As much as I want to tear down the populist John Schneiders and John Cranleys I want to take the high road and pretend that I might thereby climb high enough to avoid them. But would I then still be able to see the ground to which I must ultimately return for food and shelter? I’m torn. I wonder if a positive approach which strives for intellectual rigor first is more than an acknowledgement that practical political change in Cincinnati is hopeless (in the short term at least) and that my personal prospects lie in a different context with different values. Am I seeking validation from a group of elite critics and experts, popularly ignored, or actually trying to change a system largely run by demagogues and their uninterested employees? Is a synthesis possible?

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Posted in: Access | Events
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How fast is the bus?

This fast:

Agency Line Avg Speed(MPH)
SORTA 82x 47.2
SORTA 52x 43.5
SORTA 42x 35.7
SORTA 67 35.4
SORTA 71 32.7
SORTA 75x 32.2
TANK 22X 31.5
TANK 2X 29.7
TANK 28X 29.4
TANK 29X 28.9
TANK 32X 28.2
SORTA 30x 27.4
TANK Gateway 27
SORTA 12x 25.8
SORTA 23 25.5
TANK 1X 24.9
SORTA 81x 24.6
SORTA 29x 24.2
TANK 30X 23.8
SORTA 28 23.6
SORTA 14x 23.1
SORTA 3 23.1
TANK 17X 23
SORTA 50 22.8
SORTA 74x 22.8
TANK 19X 22.4
TANK 18X 22
SORTA 2x 21.8
TANK 9 21.6
TANK 25X 21.5
TANK H5AM 21.1
SORTA 25x 20.5
TANK H2PM 20.4
SORTA 40x 19.8
SORTA 77x 18.7
SORTA 41 18.4
SORTA 20 17.4
SORTA 32 17.4
TANK H8AM 17.1
SORTA 15x 17
SORTA 24 16.9
TANK 1 16.8
TANK H9PM 16.7
TANK 33 16.7
TANK H1AM 16.5
TANK 25 16.5
TANK H1PM 16.2
TANK 11 16.2
SORTA 10 16.1
TANK ND2P 15.8
SORTA 38 15.6
TANK 3 15.4
TANK H3PM 15.3
TANK 23 15.2
SORTA 11 15.1
TANK 16 15.1
SORTA 78 15
SORTA 49 14.9
SORTA 27 14.8
SORTA 19 14.7
SORTA 16 14.7
SORTA 85 14.5
SORTA 17 14.4
SORTA 6 14.3
SORTA 64 14.3
SORTA 39 14.2
TANK 7 14
SORTA 21 14
TANK 20 13.9
TANK H6PM 13.9
SORTA 43 13.9
TANK 5 13.9
SORTA 4 13.5
SORTA 31 13.2
SORTA 51 13.1
SORTA 33 13.1
SORTA 1 12.7
TANK 12 12.2
TANK H4PM 11.1
TANK H2AM 10.8
TANK Southbank 10.4
SORTA 46 9.6

Interesting stuff! And pretty close to a normal distribution. The “H…” lines are TANK’s school bus lines by the way.(EDIT: See the comments for a much better account of TANK naming conventions) And of course the speed varies by location and time of day. Everything will be slower downtown than on the highway.

I derived the numbers from the GTFS feeds from both agencies. All of the numbers look like they’re in the right ballpark, but I haven’t gone through this line by line to rule out anything weird like big scheduled layovers. I’ve also updated the “shapes from GTFS” file to include average speeds for the line. There should be a map coming soon…it will be interesting to see if I can use the data to identify chokepoints in the system and potentially how they vary throughout the day as traffic changes. Of course the data isn’t from actual observed speeds, just inferred from the length of route segments and their scheduled times throughout the week.

Transit agencies: I know your planning departments must do interesting statistical analyses of your routes internally…it would be awesome if you shared the results with the world!

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Posted in: Analysis | Data | Math
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